Climate change predictions could be significantly off target

A study carried out by a team of international researchers has found that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have increased significantly faster than predicted.  The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, claims that since 2000 levels of CO2 emissions have increased by 35% more than what most climate change models have allowed for.  If correct the implications of this are that the world’s temperature will rise more quickly and global warming will be harder to control than originally feared.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had reported earlier this year that world temperatures would rise by up to 6.4C (11.5F) over the next 100 years.  According to this new report, these predictions could be unduly optimistic.

Corinne Le Quéré, of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) said:

“There’s quite a significant difference from what was forecast…..It’s rather scary and the IPCC scenarios are, therefore, rather too optimistic — as if they weren’t bleak enough already. The whole thing is likely to mean mitigation is rather more difficult than was thought.”

Responsibility for the increased rate of CO2 emissions is thought to be partly due to the rapid economic expansion of China and India, the extent of which hadn’t been taken into account.  It has also thought that there has been a reduction in the ability of the land and the oceans to absorb carbon, causing more to be pumped out into the atmosphere.

Photo by SorbyRock